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Ontario · maple atlas

Maple sugaring in Northumberland, Ontario

Northumberland is a county in Ontario. Ontario's census divisions are its counties, districts and regional municipalities. Statistics Canada's 2021 Census of Agriculture counted 46 farms reporting maple taps here (taps withheld by Statistics Canada). Around Cobourg, sap usually runs from March 9 to April 5. Here's the long-run pattern, 35 seasons of sap weather, and the outlook this week.
Too early to tapAbout 153 days until the usual start.
Sap starts
Mar 9
weather estimate
Season ends
Apr 5
about 4 weeks
Sap days / season
31.5
1991–2025 average
Taps, 2021
withheld
by Statistics Canada

Sap-flow outlook at Cobourg right now

Full Ontario forecast →

Forecast for Cobourg, ON

Updated Oct 7, 11:00 AM EDT

Off-season for now. Sap needs freezing nights, and none are in sight. Northumberland's season usually opens around March 9, which is 153 days away.

No freeze-thaw days in the forecast

freeze thaw 0 °C

  1. ThuOct 8
    9° / 17°
    No refreeze forecast
  2. FriOct 9
    7° / 18°
    No refreeze forecast
  3. SatOct 10
    3° / 18°
    No refreeze forecast
  4. SunOct 11
    14° / 22°
    No refreeze forecast
  5. MonOct 12
    12° / 19°
    No refreeze forecast
  6. TueOct 13
    11° / 15°
    No refreeze forecast

Data: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Verdicts use freeze-thaw thresholds from maple field research; your woods may run a little differently.

When the sap runs

The sugaring calendar at Cobourg

Freeze-thaw weather at Cobourg peaks in the weeks of Mar 2 to Apr 6, which hold about 43% of a season's sap days. March is the busiest month. Typical dates are a weather estimate (no official season record for this province): the median of this division's own weather signals.
Typical season: Mar 9 – Apr 50246Week of Dec 1: 1.7 sap days on averageWeek of Dec 8: 1.6 sap days on averageWeek of Dec 15: 1.3 sap days on averageWeek of Dec 22: 1.3 sap days on averageWeek of Dec 29: 1.0 sap days on averageWeek of Jan 5: 0.9 sap days on averageWeek of Jan 12: 0.9 sap days on averageWeek of Jan 19: 0.8 sap days on averageWeek of Jan 26: 0.6 sap days on averageWeek of Feb 2: 1.1 sap days on averageWeek of Feb 9: 0.9 sap days on averageWeek of Feb 16: 1.7 sap days on averageWeek of Feb 23: 1.4 sap days on averageWeek of Mar 2: 1.8 sap days on averageWeek of Mar 9: 2.1 sap days on averageWeek of Mar 16: 2.4 sap days on averageWeek of Mar 23: 2.5 sap days on averageWeek of Mar 30: 2.5 sap days on averageWeek of Apr 6: 2.1 sap days on averageWeek of Apr 13: 1.1 sap days on averageWeek of Apr 20: 1.0 sap days on averageWeek of Apr 27: 0.5 sap days on averageWeek of May 4: 0.1 sap days on averageWeek of May 11: 0.1 sap days on averageWeek of May 18: 0.0 sap days on averageWeek of May 25: 0.0 sap days on averageDecJanFebMarAprMaytaps in ~Mar 9
Average number of freeze-thaw sap days in each week of the season at Cobourg, 1991–2025 (Daymet temperatures). A sap day is an overnight low under −1 °C (30.2 °F) followed by an afternoon high over +3 °C (37.4 °F). The shaded band is the typical season.

Year-to-year spread

Opening signal
Median Mar 9; the middle half of seasons fell between Feb 27 and Mar 15. Earliest Feb 8 (2024), latest Mar 22 (1993).
Closing signal
Median Apr 5; middle half between Mar 31 and Apr 13. Earliest Mar 12 (2012), latest Apr 23 (2018).
Sap days by month
Dec20%Jan11%Feb16%Mar32%Apr20%May1%

35 seasons of sap weather

Northumberland seasons, 1991–2025

The best sap year at Cobourg was 2018 with 46 freeze-thaw days; the leanest was 1993 with 18. Seasons that start early tend to end early too: the trees run on the swing between freezing nights and mild days, and heat ends it.
JanFebMarAprMaysap days20252025: Mar 9 – Apr 10, 28 sap days2820242024: Feb 8 – Mar 13, 32 sap days3220232023: Mar 8 – Apr 10, 38 sap days3820222022: Mar 6 – Apr 2, 32 sap days3220212021: Mar 1 – Apr 4, 32 sap days3220202020: Feb 26 – Mar 28, 41 sap days4120192019: Mar 14 – Apr 17, 40 sap days4020182018: Mar 19 – Apr 23, 46 sap days4620172017: Feb 22 – Mar 29, 32 sap days3220162016: Feb 25 – Mar 31, 34 sap days3420152015: Mar 15 – Apr 6, 22 sap days2220142014: Mar 17 – Apr 20, 26 sap days2620132013: Mar 9 – Apr 11, 38 sap days3820122012: Feb 12 – Mar 12, 35 sap days3520112011: Mar 10 – Apr 9, 24 sap days2420102010: Feb 26 – Mar 30, 25 sap days2520092009: Mar 9 – Apr 13, 33 sap days3320082008: Mar 15 – Apr 4, 22 sap days2220072007: Feb 28 – Mar 30, 26 sap days2620062006: Feb 27 – Apr 2, 35 sap days3520052005: Mar 9 – Apr 13, 34 sap days3420042004: Mar 10 – Apr 13, 30 sap days3020032003: Mar 16 – Apr 17, 23 sap days2320022002: Mar 5 – Apr 7, 36 sap days3620012001: Mar 13 – Apr 3, 25 sap days2520002000: Feb 19 – Mar 20, 33 sap days3319991999: Mar 4 – Apr 5, 42 sap days4219981998: Feb 24 – Mar 25, 28 sap days2819971997: Mar 17 – Apr 15, 28 sap days2819961996: Mar 17 – Apr 19, 34 sap days3419951995: Feb 19 – Mar 25, 38 sap days3819941994: Mar 14 – Apr 11, 31 sap days3119931993: Mar 22 – Apr 5, 18 sap days1819921992: Mar 18 – Apr 15, 31 sap days3119911991: Mar 2 – Apr 4, 29 sap days29
Each bar runs from the season's opening signal to its closing signal, estimated from daily Daymet temperatures at Cobourg. Dashed lines mark the typical dates. The right column counts freeze-thaw sap days from December through May.

Maple production

Northumberland in the Census of Agriculture

Statistics Canada counts the farms that report maple taps in its Census of Agriculture every five years. In 2021 it counted 46 in Northumberland; in 2016, 56 farms and 15,054 taps.

Over the five years the farm count changed −18%. Statistics Canada cautions that 2021 and 2016 are not strictly comparable: the census-farm definition changed in 2021, and farms were assigned to their main location more strictly.

Statistics Canada doesn't publish syrup volume by census division, so the Canadian pages show farms and taps, not gallons or litres.

Northumberland maple production, 2016 and 2021 (Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture)
Census yearFarms reporting tapsTaps
202146withheld by Statistics Canada
20165615,054
  • "Withheld by Statistics Canada": Statistics Canada suppressed the value as too unreliable to publish (F). The farm count is still published.

Nearby

Neighboring maple divisions

Distances are between reference towns; typical dates are each division's own estimate.

About these numbers

The season dates are estimated from 35 seasons of daily high and low temperatures for the Daymet 1-km grid cell at Cobourg, the division's most populous municipality in the 2021 Census; the cell sits at 80 m (262 ft). Each day is scored with the same freeze-thaw rule as our live forecast: a sap day is an overnight low under −1 °C (30.2 °F) followed by an afternoon high over +3 °C (37.4 °F). A season's closing signal is the last sap day before accumulated warmth reaches a threshold, and the opening signal sits 35 days before that, never earlier than the first real freeze-thaw week. The rule was calibrated on 117 state-seasons of USDA-reported dates in the US and is applied here unchanged. Ontario has no official season record, so the typical dates are a weather estimate. Production figures are copied from Statistics Canada as published. Full method, the Daymet checks and the Quebec validation → Run a sugarhouse here? Put this sap forecast on your own website →

Sources · 7

  1. 1.Maple taps, Census of Agriculture, 2021 (Table 32-10-0362-01) · Statistics Canada
  2. 2.Maple taps, Census of Agriculture, 2011 and 2016 (Table 32-10-0423-01) · Statistics Canada
  3. 3.Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 4 R1 · ORNL DAAC
  4. 4.Sap flow in sugar maple: timing and weather drivers (Frontiers in Agronomy, 2025) · de Lima Santos et al.
  5. 5.2021 Census cartographic boundary files (census divisions, population centres) · Statistics Canada
  6. 6.Population and dwelling counts, 2021 Census (Tables 98-10-0002-01 and 98-10-0011-01) · Statistics Canada
Show 1 more
  1. 7.GeoNames geographical database (CA) · GeoNames

Licences and attribution

  • Adapted from Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture 2021 and 2016 (Tables 32-10-0362-01 and 32-10-0423-01), 2021 Census population and dwelling counts (Tables 98-10-0002-01 and 98-10-0011-01) and 2021 Census cartographic boundary files. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
  • Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
  • Thornton, M.M., R. Shrestha, Y. Wei, P.E. Thornton, S-C. Kao, and B.E. Wilson. 2022. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 4 R1. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2129
  • Place coordinates: GeoNames (geonames.org), CC BY 4.0.

FAQ

Northumberland sugaring questions

When should I tap maple trees in Northumberland, Ontario?
In a typical year the sap starts running around March 9 near Cobourg and the season winds down around April 5. Have your taps in a day or two before the first forecast string of nights below −1 °C and days above +3 °C. In the past 35 seasons the weather signal came as early as Feb 8 and as late as Mar 22.
How much maple syrup does Northumberland produce?
Statistics Canada doesn't publish syrup volume by census division. Its 2021 Census of Agriculture counted 46 farms reporting maple taps in Northumberland; the tap count was withheld by Statistics Canada.
How many sap days does Northumberland get in a season?
On average 31.5 freeze-thaw sap days from December through May at Cobourg, of which about 15.6 are textbook days with a night between about −7 and −2 °C and a day between 4 and 9 °C. The best season since 1991 was 2018 (46 sap days); the leanest was 1993 (18).
Where do these dates come from?
From 35 seasons of daily high and low temperatures at Cobourg (Daymet 1-km grid), scored with the same freeze-thaw rule as our live forecast. Ontario has no official season record, so they are a weather estimate. They describe a typical year at one point in the division; your sugarbush, slope and elevation can shift them by days.

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